IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 15/03/2017
March 15, 2017 10:39 am
FOMC decision: Signals on the rate path to drive the dollar • Besides the rate decision, this meeting will include updated forecasts and a press conf. by Yellen. • Widely expected to hike rates by 25 bps (90% prob.). Thus, market action will probably come from the updated signals on the rate path (“dot plot”). • We exp. an unchanged “dot plot”. The risk to our view would be an upward revision. • Even if it is left unchanged, we exp. Yellen to maintain a confident stance. Such a tone may amplify speculation for faster hikes and support USD.
Dutch elections: Eurozone’s first political risk this year • In the Netherlands, people will elect their new PM. One of the most popular candidates is Eurosceptic, and wants to hold a “Nexit” referendum. • However, even if he gets the most votes, he’d likely need a coalition of parties to form a gov. • Most parties pledged not to work with him, which makes a “Nexit” highly unlikely. • In case he doesn’t get 1st place (polls show him 2nd), EUR could extend its recent gains. • If he gets 1st place, even if he doesn’t manage to form a gov., his strong showing may give momentum to Le Pen, and hurt EUR.
As for today’s economic indicators: • UK: Jobs data for Jan. Unempl. rate exp. unchanged, weekly earnings to slow. GBP-negative. • US: CPI & retail sales data, all for Feb. Could prove USD-negative, but focus will be on the Fed.
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FOMC decision: Signals on the rate path to drive the dollar
• Besides the rate decision, this meeting will include updated forecasts and a press conf. by Yellen.
• Widely expected to hike rates by 25 bps (90% prob.). Thus, market action will probably come from the updated signals on the rate path (“dot plot”).
• We exp. an unchanged “dot plot”. The risk to our view would be an upward revision.
• Even if it is left unchanged, we exp. Yellen to maintain a confident stance. Such a tone may amplify speculation for faster hikes and support USD.
Dutch elections: Eurozone’s first political risk this year
• In the Netherlands, people will elect their new PM. One of the most popular candidates is Eurosceptic, and wants to hold a “Nexit” referendum.
• However, even if he gets the most votes, he’d likely need a coalition of parties to form a gov.
• Most parties pledged not to work with him, which makes a “Nexit” highly unlikely.
• In case he doesn’t get 1st place (polls show him 2nd), EUR could extend its recent gains.
• If he gets 1st place, even if he doesn’t manage to form a gov., his strong showing may give momentum to Le Pen, and hurt EUR.
As for today’s economic indicators:
• UK: Jobs data for Jan. Unempl. rate exp. unchanged, weekly earnings to slow. GBP-negative.
• US: CPI & retail sales data, all for Feb. Could prove USD-negative, but focus will be on the Fed.
Join us for more technical and fundamental analysis: http://www.ironfx.com
To get the latest Forex trading news you should:
• Download the IronFX Research app: http://goo.gl/jhQIxO
• Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IronFX
• Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ironfx
• Follow us on LinkedIn: https://goo.gl/wSEbPN
• Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IronFXGlobal
• Circle us on Google+: https://www.google.com/+Ironfxglobal
• Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/1foFmCU
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