US employment data cement a March hike
• NFP came 235k in Feb., more than the exp. 190k. The unemployment rate ticked down.
• Avg. hourly earnings missed their forecast slightly. As a result, reaction in USD was negative, perhaps on some profit-taking of USD-long positions.
• However, earnings were not soft enough to derail the Fed’s plans. Still expected to hike on Wed.
• Forthcoming USD direction may be decided by the FOMC signals on the rate path.

Euro jumps on reports the ECB could raise rates before end of QE
• EUR jumped on Fri., on a Bloomberg report that ECB could raise rates before QE program ends.
• More of a theoretical question, but shows the thinking of ECB policymakers.
• EUR/USD may stay supported in coming days, at least ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Today:
• Speakers: UK lawmakers will debate the Brexit bill amendment in the House of Commons.
We have a busy week ahead of us:
• Tue: China’s retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset invst. for Jan & Feb.
• Wed: FOMC rate decision. Widely exp. to raise rates. Focus will be on the signals for future increases in rates. Also, Dutch elections could have an impact on the euro.
• Thu: BoJ, BoE, SNB & Norges Bank policy meetings. All exp. to remain on hold.

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