IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 10/03/2017
March 10, 2017 10:50 am
Will the US jobs report seal the deal for a March hike? • NFP for Feb. are exp. 190k vs 227k prev. We see upside risks to the forecast (ADP 297k). • Unemployment rate is exp. to tick down, average hourly earnings to accelerate. • Initial reaction in USD likely to be on NFP print (if higher-than-exp. then USD might surge). • Secondary reaction may come from earnings. If they meet the forecast, USD may gain further. • This looks like a strong report overall, which could seal the deal for a March rate hike.
ECB: More optimistic, but still too early to debate tapering • ECB remained on hold yest. The statement maintained its dovish forward guidance. • But Draghi’s press conf. was much more hawkish. He said the Bank is no longer willing to use “all instruments” to achieve its mandate. • And that there has been no discussion for more TLTRO loans, which are about to expire. • EUR surged, as he suggested that the days of aggressive ECB easing may be behind us. • EUR may remain supported from these comments in next days, but not against USD! (NFP, Fed).
As for the rest of today’s highlights: • Norway: CPI data for Feb. Core rate is exp. to tick down. May prove NOK-negative. • UK: Industrial production for Jan. is exp. to decline. GBP-negative. • Canada: Jobs data for Feb. Unempl. rate exp. unchanged. We see downside risks to the forecast. If so, CAD could gain, but the currency’s short-term outlook is negative (dov. BoC, lower oil).
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Will the US jobs report seal the deal for a March hike?
• NFP for Feb. are exp. 190k vs 227k prev. We see upside risks to the forecast (ADP 297k).
• Unemployment rate is exp. to tick down, average hourly earnings to accelerate.
• Initial reaction in USD likely to be on NFP print (if higher-than-exp. then USD might surge).
• Secondary reaction may come from earnings. If they meet the forecast, USD may gain further.
• This looks like a strong report overall, which could seal the deal for a March rate hike.
ECB: More optimistic, but still too early to debate tapering
• ECB remained on hold yest. The statement maintained its dovish forward guidance.
• But Draghi’s press conf. was much more hawkish. He said the Bank is no longer willing to use “all instruments” to achieve its mandate.
• And that there has been no discussion for more TLTRO loans, which are about to expire.
• EUR surged, as he suggested that the days of aggressive ECB easing may be behind us.
• EUR may remain supported from these comments in next days, but not against USD! (NFP, Fed).
As for the rest of today’s highlights:
• Norway: CPI data for Feb. Core rate is exp. to tick down. May prove NOK-negative.
• UK: Industrial production for Jan. is exp. to decline. GBP-negative.
• Canada: Jobs data for Feb. Unempl. rate exp. unchanged. We see downside risks to the forecast. If so, CAD could gain, but the currency’s short-term outlook is negative (dov. BoC, lower oil).
Join us for more technical and fundamental analysis: http://www.ironfx.com
To get the latest Forex trading news you should:
• Download the IronFX Research app: http://goo.gl/jhQIxO
• Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IronFX
• Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ironfx
• Follow us on LinkedIn: https://goo.gl/wSEbPN
• Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IronFXGlobal
• Circle us on Google+: https://www.google.com/+Ironfxglobal
• Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/1foFmCU
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