IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/02/2017
February 7, 2017 10:00 amVideo
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RBA keeps rates on hold; maintains a confident tone
• RBA remained on hold. The officials were surprisingly optimistic with regards to economic data.
• They signalled that although GDP was negative in Q3, that was temporary. They also downplayed the rather soft Q4 CPIs.
• Overall, the RBA remains neutral, and in our view is likely to remain on hold in coming months.
• AUD rose on the news, and could remain supported in the foreseeable future.
Overnight: New Zealand’s 2-year inflation expectations surge
• Inflation expectations indicate where people expect inflation to be in … (2 years in this case).
• This surge is very positive for the RBNZ and diminishes the likelihood for any further easing.
• NZD surged and is likely to remain strong in the near-term. RBNZ may also be upbeat tomorrow.
Euro takes a hit as political risks loom
• EUR tumbled yest., while safe havens JPY & gold surged, on French pres. election news.
• Republican cand. Francois Fillon apologised for a scandal. Investors may have seen it as increasing the chances of far-right cand. Le Pen.
• As we approach the election (Apr.), we may see similar reactions. Also, Dutch election (Mar.)
Today:
• US: Trade balance and JOLTS job openings, both for Dec.
• Canada: Ivey PMI for Jan. We see the case for an increase, which may support CAD.
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